WN 3119 · BUF → TPA

took off 4:10 PM ET · landed 6:29 PM ET (scheduled 4:04 PM ET → 6:58 PM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 7:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±2 pts +15 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to TPA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into TPA at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ BUF usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

BUF (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

TPA (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.99 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3119 · BUF → TPA

Odds over time

How late did it get to TPA?