Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3125
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday
WN 3125 · PHX → AUS
departs 3:50 PM MT · arrives 8:05 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Sun 10/4 34%
Tue 10/6 21%
Wed 10/7 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Now
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late
↑
3pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at AUS that day
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
AUS (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.14 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.