WN 3192 · PHX → DEN

departs 4:05 PM MT · arrives 6:45 PM MT

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

71% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
29%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
30%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at DEN that day

↑ 4pm departures from PHX are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

DEN (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.35 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3192 · PHX → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?