WN 3205 · LAX → TUS

took off 5:38 PM PT · expected to land 6:44 PM MT (scheduled 4:31 PM PT → 6:10 PM MT)

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?

99% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to TUS?

LIVE

On time or early
1%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
78%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 31% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 4pm departures from LAX are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 1,000 ft forecast at LAX that day

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

TUS (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling6,500 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3205 · LAX → TUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to TUS?