Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3212
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday
WN 3212 · SMF → SAN
departs 2:45 PM PT · arrives 4:15 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 50%
Fri 10/2 46%
Mon 10/5 37%
Tue 10/6 25%
Wed 10/7 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±0 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 31% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.