WN 3214 · PHX → LGB

took off 4:23 PM MT · expected to land 5:20 PM PT (scheduled 3:41 PM MT → 5:08 PM PT)

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at LGB more than 15 minutes late?

51% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LGB?

LIVE

On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
44%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ PHX is busy at that time

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGB (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3214 · PHX → LGB

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGB?