WN 3234 · PHX → OMA

departs 11:24 AM MT · arrives 3:50 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 15h before departure

Arrive at OMA more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to OMA?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, 0.9 in of rain forecast at OMA that day

↑ 11am departures from PHX are often late

↑ This flight has been late 35% of the time recently

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ OMA usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

OMA (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.89 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3234 · PHX → OMA

Odds over time

How late will it get to OMA?