WN 3245 · ELP → SAT

departs 5:37 PM MT · arrives 8:15 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 4:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±0 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at SAT that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into SAT at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ SAT is quiet at that time

Weather at each end

ELP (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAT (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.05 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3245 · ELP → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?