WN 3279 · SAN → HNL

took off 10:10 AM PT · expected to land 12:30 PM HT (scheduled 9:32 AM PT → 12:29 PM HT)

Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to HNL?

LIVE

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 2.5 mi, 2.2 in of rain forecast at HNL that day

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at SAN that day

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

HNL (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip2.24 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3279 · SAN → HNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HNL?