Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3281 LANDED 1:10 PM CT, ~6 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday

WN 3281 · PHX → STL

took off 8:46 AM MT · landed 1:10 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ PHX is busy at that time

↑ 8am departures from PHX are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

STL (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3281 · PHX → STL

Odds over time