Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 33
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 33 · SMF → SNA
departs 2:25 PM PT · arrives 3:55 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 9:00 AM ET · 8h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Tue 10/6 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at SNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to SNA?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
2pm departures from SMF are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SNA (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.