Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3403
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Tomorrow
WN 3403 · SAN → PHX
departs 7:40 PM PT · arrives 9:05 PM MT
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 22h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Tue 10/6 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
36%
chance · ±3 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
36%
Leave 15+ late
44%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7pm departures from SAN are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.