Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3409
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 3409 · PVD → MDW
departs 11:00 AM ET · arrives 12:30 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/1 10%
Fri 10/2 18%
Mon 10/5 14%
Tue 10/6 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±2 pts
+14 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +14 pts in 24h
+14 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave PVD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,000 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at MDW that day
↑
PVD is prone to delays
↑
11am departures from PVD are often late
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
PVD (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
MDW (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 1,000 ft Visibility 2.5 mi Precip 1.00 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.