WN 3421 · DEN → SMF

departs 12:44 PM MT · arrives 2:09 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 AM ET · 7h before departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SMF?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 12pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.10 in

SMF (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3421 · DEN → SMF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SMF?