WN 3424 · SAN → HOU

departs 12:25 PM PT · arrives 5:26 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HOU?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, 0.4 in of rain forecast at HOU that day

↑ Arrivals into HOU at that hour are often late

↑ 12pm departures from SAN are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at SAN that day

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

HOU (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.37 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3424 · SAN → HOU

Odds over time

How late will it get to HOU?