WN 3427 · PHX → MDW

took off 8:29 AM MT · landed 1:20 PM CT (scheduled 8:26 AM MT → 1:43 PM CT)

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to MDW?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,000 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at MDW that day

↑ PHX is busy at that time

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MDW (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip1.08 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3427 · PHX → MDW

Odds over time

How late did it get to MDW?