WN 3431 · SAN → MDW

departs 10:33 PM PT · arrives 4:28 AM CT

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±0 pts +22 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to MDW?

On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
33%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at MDW that day

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Arrivals into MDW at that hour are usually not late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

MDW (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.98 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3431 · SAN → MDW

Odds over time

How late will it get to MDW?