WN 3435 · BWI → MCO

took off 7:14 PM ET · landed 8:56 PM ET (scheduled 6:45 PM ET → 9:22 PM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±1 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to MCO?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 6pm departures from BWI are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling4,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MCO (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3435 · BWI → MCO

Odds over time

How late did it get to MCO?