Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3464
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 3464 · SAN → FAT
departs 8:40 AM PT · arrives 10:05 AM PT
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 1h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/1 14%
Fri 10/2 13%
Mon 10/5 11%
Tue 10/6 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at FAT more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at FAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to FAT?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↑
SAN is busy at that time
↑
FAT is prone to delays
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at FAT
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
FAT (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.