Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3470
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 3470 · SDF → HOU
departs 6:05 AM ET · arrives 7:30 AM CT
Forecast issued Wed 8:00 AM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Tue 10/6 4%
Odds over time
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
5%
chance · ±0 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
5%
Leave 15+ late
4%
Arrive 1h+ late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Leave SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Arrive at HOU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HOU?
On time or early
95%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
HOU is prone to delays
↑
SDF is prone to delays
↑
Gusts to 25 kt forecast at HOU that day
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SDF
Weather at each end
SDF (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
HOU (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.12 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.