Schedule: FAA flight plans.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3490 PROBABLY LANDED (THE FAA HASN'T CONFIRMED THE LANDING TIME)

Wednesday, September 30 Today

WN 3490 · SAT → ELP

took off 7:44 PM CT · probably landed (not confirmed) (scheduled 7:33 PM CT → 8:14 PM MT)

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±0 pts −7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ELP?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at SAT that day

↑ 7pm departures from SAT are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ SAT usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

SAT (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.05 in

ELP (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3490 · SAT → ELP

Odds over time

How late will it get to ELP?