Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3493
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 3493 · SAN → DEN
departs 6:20 AM PT · arrives 9:50 AM MT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/1 11%
Fri 10/2 8%
Sat 10/3 10%
Mon 10/5 7%
Tue 10/6 7%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±1 pts
−7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
DEN is busy at that time
↑
This flight has been late 18% of the time recently
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
6am departures from SAN are usually not late
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
DEN (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.