WN 3495 · SAT → LAS

took off 11:12 AM CT · landed 11:32 AM PT (scheduled 10:51 AM CT → 11:47 AM PT)

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±1 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to LAS?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at SAT that day

↑ LAS is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SAT (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

LAS (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3495 · SAT → LAS

Odds over time

How late did it get to LAS?