WN 3504 · SFO → DEN

departs 1:24 PM PT · arrives 5:01 PM MT

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

47% chance · ±0 pts −36 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ 1pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ This flight has been late 38% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.06 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3504 · SFO → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?