WN 3523 · SDF → MDW

departs 1:20 PM ET · arrives 1:47 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 7h before departure

Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MDW?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at MDW that day

↑ 1pm departures from SDF are often late

↑ MDW is busy at that time

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SDF

Weather at each end

SDF (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MDW (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.59 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3523 · SDF → MDW

Odds over time

How late will it get to MDW?