WN 354 · AUS → MDW

took off 2:12 PM CT · expected to land 4:15 PM CT (scheduled 1:21 PM CT → 4:00 PM CT)

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?

68% chance · ±0 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MDW?

LIVE

On time or early
32%
15–30 min late
53%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,000 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at MDW that day

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at AUS that day

↑ 1pm departures from AUS are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ MDW usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.15 in

MDW (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip1.08 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 354 · AUS → MDW

Odds over time

How late will it get to MDW?