WN 3576 · SJC → BWI

departs 10:26 PM PT · arrives 6:31 AM ET

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 AM ET · 17h before departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

10% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BWI?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Other factors

↑ This flight has been late 16% of the time recently

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ 10pm departures from SJC are usually not late

Weather at each end

SJC (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BWI (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3576 · SJC → BWI

Odds over time

How late will it get to BWI?