Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3586
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 3586 · MDW → PHX
departs 5:25 AM CT · arrives 7:00 AM MT
Forecast issued Wed 7:00 PM ET · 13h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Tue 10/6 4%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±0 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 800 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at MDW that day
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↑
Other factors
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
5am departures from MDW are usually not late
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 2.5 mi Precip 0.94 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.