WN 3595 · DEN → SMF

departs 8:33 PM MT · arrives 10:02 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±1 pts −12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SMF?

On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

SMF (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3595 · DEN → SMF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SMF?