WN 365 · SBA → DEN

took off 7:00 AM PT · expected to land 9:57 AM MT (scheduled 7:00 AM PT → 10:20 AM MT)

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts −8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DEN?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SBA (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 365 · SBA → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?