WN 3682 · SMF → BUR

departs 6:27 AM PT · arrives 7:49 AM PT

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to BUR?

On time or early
97%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ BUR is prone to delays

↑ SMF is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into BUR at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BUR (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3682 · SMF → BUR

Odds over time

How late will it get to BUR?