WN 3684 · SMF → BUR

took off 12:37 PM PT · landed 1:31 PM PT (scheduled 12:11 PM PT → 1:39 PM PT)

Forecast issued Wed 4:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to BUR?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ BUR is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into BUR at that hour are often late

↑ SMF is busy at that time

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at BUR that day

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BUR (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3684 · SMF → BUR

Odds over time

How late did it get to BUR?