WN 3712 · SMF → LGB

departs 2:06 PM PT · arrives 3:40 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at LGB more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to LGB?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from SMF are often late

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into LGB at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGB (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3712 · SMF → LGB

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGB?