Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3728
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday
WN 3728 · SJU → MCO
departs 8:35 PM AT · arrives 11:40 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 28%
Fri 10/2 22%
Sat 10/3 20%
Sun 10/4 19%
Mon 10/5 15%
Tue 10/6 13%
Wed 10/7 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Now
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave SJU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at SJU
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SJU (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.07 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.