WN 3744 · SMF → SEA

took off 6:19 AM PT · landed 7:42 AM PT (scheduled 6:09 AM PT → 8:07 AM PT)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 13h after departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SEA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↑ SEA is busy at that time

↑ SMF is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 6am departures from SMF are usually not late

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3744 · SMF → SEA

Odds over time

How late did it get to SEA?