WN 3759 · SNA → DEN

took off 3:46 PM PT · expected to land 6:35 PM MT (scheduled 3:17 PM PT → 6:35 PM MT)

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±0 pts −23 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DEN?

LIVE

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
27%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SNA

Weather at each end

SNA (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3759 · SNA → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?