Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3793
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 3793 · AUS → SMF
departs 5:20 PM CT · arrives 6:55 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 9:00 AM ET · 9h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Tue 10/6 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±0 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at AUS that day
↑
5pm departures from AUS are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.18 in
SMF (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.