Schedule: FAA flight plans.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3800 PROBABLY LANDED (THE FAA HASN'T CONFIRMED THE LANDING TIME)

Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday

WN 3800 · STL → ATL

took off 7:20 PM CT · probably landed (not confirmed) (scheduled 6:31 PM CT → 9:21 PM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ATL?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into ATL at that hour are often late

↑ 6pm departures from STL are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ ATL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

STL (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ATL (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3800 · STL → ATL

Odds over time

How late will it get to ATL?