WN 3801 · DEN → ALB

took off 4:46 PM MT · expected to land 9:47 PM ET (scheduled 4:16 PM MT → 9:50 PM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 7:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at ALB more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±0 pts −20 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ALB?

LIVE

On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at ALB that day

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

ALB (destination) Gusts4 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3801 · DEN → ALB

Odds over time

How late will it get to ALB?