WN 3806 · STL → BNA

departs 2:42 PM CT · arrives 3:54 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 AM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BNA?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 2pm departures from STL are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA

Weather at each end

STL (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BNA (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3806 · STL → BNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to BNA?