WN 3837 · STL → ECP

departs 2:00 PM CT · arrives 3:54 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 11h before departure

Arrive at ECP more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ECP?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 19% of the time recently

↑ 2pm departures from STL are often late

↑ Arrivals into ECP at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ STL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

STL (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ECP (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3837 · STL → ECP

Odds over time

How late will it get to ECP?