Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3838
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 3838 · LAS → SAN
departs 8:20 PM PT · arrives 9:35 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 17h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Tue 10/6 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±5 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 28% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.