Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3842
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 3842 · DEN → SBA
departs 8:55 PM MT · arrives 10:30 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 8:00 AM ET · 15h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/1 33%
Fri 10/2 34%
Sun 10/4 29%
Mon 10/5 30%
Tue 10/6 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±8 pts
−12 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
54%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.9d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −12 pts in 24h
−12 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Arrive at SBA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SBA?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SBA
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.10 in
SBA (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.