Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3845 LANDED 6:46 AM PT, ~6 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30 Today

WN 3845 · STL → LAS

took off 5:47 AM CT · landed 6:46 AM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

4% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ Other factors

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from STL are usually not late

Weather at each end

STL (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3845 · STL → LAS

Odds over time