Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3852
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday
WN 3852 · TPA → DEN
departs 2:00 PM ET · arrives 3:45 PM MT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Tue 10/6 16%
Wed 10/7 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±0 pts
−11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed −11 pts in 24h
−11 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
TPA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.44 in
DEN (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.