Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3857 LANDED 9:19 AM ET, ~15 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30 Today

WN 3857 · STL → MCO

took off 6:32 AM CT · landed 9:19 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 4:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

4% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ MCO is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

Weather at each end

STL (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MCO (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3857 · STL → MCO

Odds over time