WN 3862 · STL → MDW

took off 10:57 AM CT · landed 11:45 AM CT (scheduled 10:41 AM CT → 11:52 AM CT)

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±3 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to MDW?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,000 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at MDW that day

↑ Other factors

↑ This flight has been late 20% of the time recently

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ STL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

STL (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MDW (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.70 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3862 · STL → MDW

Odds over time

How late did it get to MDW?