WN 3864 · STL → MDW

departs 3:49 PM CT · arrives 4:59 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 AM ET · 9h before departure

Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MDW?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at MDW that day

↑ Arrivals into MDW at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ STL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

STL (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MDW (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.47 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3864 · STL → MDW

Odds over time

How late will it get to MDW?