WN 3866 · LIT → BNA

departs 2:53 PM CT · arrives 4:11 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to BNA?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late

↑ 2pm departures from LIT are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA

Weather at each end

LIT (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BNA (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3866 · LIT → BNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to BNA?