Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3869
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 3869 · BNA → MSY
departs 5:15 PM CT · arrives 6:50 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 9:00 AM ET · 9h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Tue 10/6 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
21%
chance · ±0 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
21%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at MSY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to MSY?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from BNA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSY
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MSY (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.